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新能源汽车概念全面爆发_新能源汽车行情进入全面加速阶段

到底是怎么样的一则消息,惹火了今天的新能源汽车市场?理财君来简单说一说。


9月9日,在天津滨海新区举办的2017中国汽车产业发展(泰达)国际论坛上,工信部副部长辛国斌透露我国已经开始研究制定禁售燃油汽车时间表,意味着国内燃油汽车禁售政策也提上日程。实际上,发达国家也早就对燃油汽车禁售进行了表态。


同时,“双积分政策”也箭在弦上。今年6月国务院法制办公室发布《乘用车企业平均燃料消耗量与新能源积分并行管理暂行办法(征求意见稿)》。这次辛国斌也表示,双积分政策将于近期正式发布。


这意味着新能源汽车的研发和生产将由企业自主决定转变为政策要求,预计未来汽车增量市场主要方向就是新能源汽车。


禁售燃油车,将新能源车变成政策要求,这绝对是够吸引眼球的消息,怪不得今年的市场彻底爆发了!


实际上,有券商就表示,政策与市场双向利好,新能源汽车产业链将迎来“金九”行情。


先来看政策方面的利好。


9月6日,工信部发布《关于2016年度新能源汽车推广应用财政补助资金(补充电请)清算审核初审报告》,为年内第二次新能源汽车推广应用资金审核公示,补贴资金发放从一年一次变为一年多次。


9月1日,工信部发布《新能源汽车推广应用推荐车型目录(2017年第8批)》,自此,今年以来已累计发布8批推荐车型目录,共包括184户企业的2538个车型。


再看新能源汽车市场方面情况。


8月,我国新能源乘用车销量5.4万辆,同比增长80.6%,环比增长25%。预计8月新能源商用车销量1.8-2.2万辆,则8月新能源汽车总销量为7.2-7.6万辆,已经接近9万辆的平均月度销售目标,同比增长可以达到89%-100%,环比增长29%-36%。


中投证券认为,随着乘用车采购“金九银十”的到来,以及客车政店采购订单逐步落地,9月仹单月销量有望突破9万辆,全年70万辆目标大概率可以实现。新能源汽车产销逐步走强,新能源商用车实质性放量,新能源汽车全年产销新一次拐点基本到来。

新能源汽车股票估值水平


既然利好如此明显,小伙伴们肯定等不及要上车了,再等一下,理财君来带小伙伴们看看新能源汽车的市场估值水平。


9月以来,新能源汽车板块,涨得最猛的是纳川股份,涨幅超过56%,同时,宝泰隆、横店东磁、当升科技、赣锋锂业、藏格控股涨幅均超过了30%。


时间放宽到今年以来,涨幅最大的寒锐钴业超过886%,还有赣锋锂业、金银河、星云股份等涨幅均超过了200%,鸿特精密、雅化集团、华友钴业、英搏尔、天齐锂业等涨幅也超过了150%。


小伙伴们可以再看看新能源汽车概念股的估值水平,市盈率PE(TTM)上百倍的那种,要小心了,几十倍的还能考虑一下。但理财君也发现,有些公司亏损或者不赚钱,9月份却受到市场的追捧,比如融捷股份、安凯客车、西部资源等,半年报数据显示,安凯客车上半年亏损近3000万;融捷股份中报净利润仅为62.73万元,同比减少了39.4%;西部资源上半年净亏损为1.21亿元,上半年同期亏损1.16亿元。


最后看一下市值,新能源汽车板块中,市值比较大的是上汽集团、格力电器、长城汽车、长安安汽车等,但是这几只股票PE水平还可以,比亚迪作为龙头股现在的PE水平达到31倍,天齐锂业、赣锋锂业这两只锂电池的龙头股估值也比较高。


新能源汽车基金涨势猛


理财君发现,在新能源汽车概念的基金中,9月份以来、近3个月有几只涨得比较猛。


先来看看几只纯粹的新能源汽车基金,比如新能源B 的9月份以来的复权单位净值增长率是10.43%,近3个月的净值增长率是47.32%。


申万菱信新能源汽车这只基金,9月以来复权单位净值增长率是4.66%,近3个月净值涨了17.5%,理财君看了一下,半年报其前十大重仓股是上汽集团、宇通客车、汇川技术、比亚迪、宏发股份、杉杉股份等,比较纯粹在投新能源汽车。


金信新能源汽车基金,9月以来复权单位净值增长率是2.36%,近3个月净值涨了12.45%,半年报前十大重仓股里面新能源概念只有福田汽车、拓普集团、均胜电子等。


另外几只买了新能源汽车概念股的基金,比如中海消费主题精选近3个月涨幅24.77%,嘉实环保低碳近3个月涨幅18.98%,信达澳银消费优选近3个月涨幅超过12.19%。理财君看了一下,它们的重仓股里有格力电器、赣锋锂业、天齐锂业、先导智能、宏发股份、国轩高科等涉及新能源汽车领域的标的。


新能源汽车行情进入全面加速阶段


全球汽车电动化、智能化、轻量化趋势不可逆转,众车企纷纷加入新能源汽车制造洪流。截至当前,全球已有6个国家公开发表声明将全面禁止纯汽油车和柴油车。在我国,8月新能源乘用车产销亮眼,新能源汽车双积分政策落地在即。券商人士认为,政策与市场双向利好的再次有机结合有望发生在9月。随着新能源汽车产销数据逐步走强,产业链公司下半年业绩有保障,有望迎来业绩估值双提升。


替代进程启动


统计数据显示,2017年8月,我国新能源乘用车销量5.4万辆,同比增长80.6%,环比增长25%,略超市场预期。此外,8月新能源商用车销量有望达到1.8万辆-2.2万辆,则8月新能源汽车总销量为7.2万辆-7.6万辆。


中投证券张镭预计,随着乘用车采购“金九银十”的到来,以及客车政府采购订单逐步落地,9月单月销量有望突破9万辆,全年70万辆目标大概率可以实现。新能源汽车产销逐步走强,新能源商用车实质性放量,新能源汽车全年产销新一次拐点基本到来。


当前,许多国家纷纷调整发展战略,在新能源、智能网联产业加快产业布局,抢占新一轮制高点。针对一些国家已经制订了停止生产销售传统能源汽车的时间表,工信部副部长辛国斌近日透露,目前工信部也启动了相关研究,将制订中国自己的禁售传统燃油汽车时间表。


太平洋证券分析师张学表示,中国本来就是新能源汽车推广力度最大的国家,研究启动全面禁止传统燃油车,表明支持力度进一步升级,发展新能源汽车战略更加坚定。“纵观大环境,我国经济进入中速增长,长期呈现L型走势,而新能源汽车产业刚刚起步,未来几年将保持30%的复合增长率,是增长最确定的行业。”


特别2017年以来,我国已经推出8批《新能源汽车推广应用推荐车型目录》,累计188户企业的2538个车型,纯电动车型占比超过70%;此外还推出12批《免征新能源汽车购置税目录》,其中2017年发布3批,节奏快于以往。据相关报道,《乘用车企业平均燃料消耗量与新能能源汽车积分并行管理办法》也即将出台,这将是新能源汽车后补贴时代的杀手锏,也是新能源汽车发展由政策推动向市场推动的重要转折。


“国家支持新能源汽车行业发展的决心已经十分明确,后续双积分政策或补贴调整政策的发布都将基于这一原则出发。”光大证券分析师刘锐预计,今年补贴虽然有退坡,影响了新能源汽车的销量,但2020年200万辆的目标仍然没有变化,销量仍将保持近40%的复合增速。

高成长和高持续性


继大众和江淮、戴姆勒和北汽、众泰和福特之后,近期雷诺日产宣布与东风汽车集团股份有限公司成立合资公司——易捷特新能源汽车有限公司,共同发展电动车,新能源汽车领域又诞生一例中外“联姻”。此外,交通运输部发文称要提升冷链物流装备专业化水平,鼓励新能源等节能环保冷藏保温车型的推广使用。


长期看,政策支持向好且具备长效机制,行业龙头间加速绑定实现共同成长,传统整车龙头纷纷转向新能源车发力,行业发展有看得到的大空间、大机会;短期看,全产业链压力不小,既要快速降价以在新国补下实现经济型,又要提高技术水平与产品性能以与燃油车竞争。压力下,行业仍在加速前进,国内外龙头脚步不断向前,各环节降价速度超预期,新产品已经开拓出市场真实需求。中泰证券坚定认为,新能源汽车一定是近年来较为稀缺、具备高持续性与成长性的行业。


布局方向上,渤海证券认为,下半年新能源汽车发展将持续向好,产销有望逐步走高,建议重点关注新能源乘用车及运营、物流专用车以及新能源客车等方面的投资机会。此外,随着国内外主要厂商家加大产品研发和推广力度,性价比高的“爆款”产品有望持续推出,从而推动智能网联汽车的普及,建议重点关注“爆款”产品订单销量超预期,以及行业重大事件影响带来的板块投资机会。


“新能源汽车以‘电’代替‘机械’,动力电池是新能源汽车最核心的零部件,技术含量高,资金投入大,资源禀赋强等特点,是行业竞争的焦点。另外,以碳酸锂和钴金属为代表的资源类产品,以湿法隔膜、锂电铜箔和正极材料为代表的材料类企业,门槛较高,也是投资者的重中之重。”张学表示。

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